Mexico vs USA has a long history in the last five games

• Mexico and the United States will face off this Saturday, October 3, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

• El Tri holds momentum after winning the last two encounters, including the 2025 Gold Cup final.

• Across 79 all time meetings, Mexico leads the series historically with 38 victories compared to 25 for the USMNT.

The national teams of Mexico and the United States will reignite their fierce rivalry this Saturday, October 3, when they meet at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Both CONCACAF powerhouses enter the international fixture transitioning into new managerial eras, with Mexico initiating a tactical project under head coach Rafael Márquez, while the USMNT, led by Mauricio Pochettino, focuses on integrating a new generation of players to build competitive depth ahead of major international tournaments.

 

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Even split across the last five series meetings

Recent fixtures between the two regional rivals reflect complete parity over their last five encounters, yielding two victories for each nation alongside a single draw. Mexico enters the matchup holding recent momentum following consecutive victories over the American squad, most notably securing a 2-1 win in the 2025 Gold Cup final at Houston’s NRG Stadium, which effectively halted a previous stretch of American dominance in the CONCACAF Nations League knockout rounds.

Overall historical record favors Mexican squad

Despite significant competitive strides made by the USMNT in modern international competition, the overall historical series continues to favor the Mexican side across 79 official matches. El Tri boasts 38 lifetime victories compared to 25 wins for the United States, with 16 draws recorded between the teams, while Mexico maintains an overall goal differential advantage having scored 150 total goals against 97 conceded to their Northern neighbors.

 

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Notable historical blowouts in series history

The long standing series features several memorable lopsided results recorded by both national programs throughout the decades. Mexico’s largest margin of victory over the United States came in April 1957, when the squad secured a 7-2 win during a World Cup qualifying match, whereas the most decisive victory in favor of the USMNT occurred in June 1995, when the American team posted a 4-0 shutout victory in the USA Cup final.

Crystal Ball prediction: Who will win?

Looking ahead to Saturday’s contest, the Crystal Ball prediction points toward a tightly contested, low scoring match as both managers balance strategic experimentation with the pressure of a rivalry fixture. While Mauricio Pochettino’s squad will attempt to leverage athletic pace in transitional moments, Mexico’s recent head to head psychological edge and tactical discipline under Rafael Márquez give El Tri a slight advantage to edge out a narrow one goal victory or secure a hard fought draw in Arizona.