What Cruz Azul needs to finish on top of Liga MX

The Apertura 2025 is reaching its final stretch, and the air in Mexico City carries that familiar mix of hope and calculation. With just two rounds left, Cruz Azul sits third in the Liga MX table, level on points with América (32) and only one behind leader Toluca. The dream of finishing first, and securing home advantage throughout the playoffs, is alive. But it’s a puzzle that will require more than just winning.

The equation for the top spot

Here’s the math. Cruz Azul must win both of its remaining matches, against Puebla (away) and Pumas (home), to keep the pressure on the leaders. That would take them to 38 points, but even perfection might not be enough.

Because while the Machine can control its own effort, it can’t control Toluca or Tigres, who currently hold the higher cards.

If both of those teams win out, Toluca vs Atlas and América, and Tigres vs Monterrey and Atlético San Luis, they’ll reach 39 points, making the summit mathematically unreachable for Cruz Azul.

In short: Larcamón’s side needs to win twice and hope that at least one of the front-runners slips.

The mental game

For Nicolás Larcamón, this chase isn’t just about tactics, it’s about tempo. Cruz Azul’s 2025 season has been a slow burn: efficient, disciplined, and quietly climbing. But the final act demands urgency. The team’s balance between Erik Lira’s control, Jesús Orozco’s backline grit, and the late-season spark from Uriel Antuna will be decisive. This is where champions are forged, not in numbers, but in nerve.

If results tilt their way, Cruz Azul could finish the regular season as Liga MX’s No. 1 seed for the first time in years, a symbolic victory that sets the tone for a serious title run.

But there’s a twist to every Cruz Azul story: sometimes, the biggest rival isn’t the team across the field, it’s time itself.

Two games. Six points. One dream. And no safety net.