Champions League crystal ball: How the knockout picture is starting to take shape

The fourth matchday of the UEFA Champions League left fans with more questions than answers, a perfect setup for the final stretch before the knockout rounds. There were goals, upsets, and moments that made it clear: predicting who survives this new league phase is a dangerous game.

The surprises that shook the table

Tuesday night had a familiar heavyweight flavor. Real Madrid’s visit to Liverpool delivered drama and precision, Alexis Mac Allister’s header sealed a 1–0 win and reminded everyone that Anfield magic cuts both ways. Bayern Munich extended their flawless run with a clinical 2–1 victory over PSG in Paris, while Atlético de Madrid and Arsenal handled business to stay among the top eight.

But Wednesday brought pure chaos. Pafos stunned Villarreal in Cyprus, and Club Brugge nearly pulled off the shock of the season, holding Barcelona to a 1–1 draw that exposed cracks in Xavi’s project. Meanwhile, Manchester City continued to look inevitable, beating Borussia Dortmund with machine like control, as Chelsea slipped to a 2–2 draw against Qarabag, a result that keeps the London side stuck in midtable limbo.

The contenders and the chasers

With four matchdays gone, the Champions League table has a clear divide. Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Inter Milan, and Manchester City occupy the top four spots, each sitting in double digits on points and double digits in goal difference, the elite of the elite.

Just behind them, PSG, Newcastle, Real Madrid, and Liverpool round out the top eight, all sitting between 9 and 10 points, separated by goal difference and small margins.

In the chasing pack, from ninth to 24th, are the names no giant wants to meet in a playoff: Galatasaray, Tottenham, Barcelona, and Chelsea lead a group fighting to keep knockout hopes alive. And yes, Barça’s draw in Belgium means they’re outside the automatic top-eight cut, for now.

The fade of the fallen giants

For others, the dream is fading fast. Juventus and Marseille sit dangerously close to elimination, while Ajax, Benfica, and Villarreal are practically out of contention, proof that reputation alone doesn’t win games in this expanded format.

The verdict

If the group stage had a crystal ball, it would show a familiar image, Bayern and City cruising, Madrid lurking, and the rest fighting to stay relevant. But as the Champions League has taught us for decades, one wild night can change the entire script.